Can You Win with Card Counting? Myths and Realities

Players feel like success is, at least to some extent, up to them, but they also acknowledge and enjoy the element of surprise provided by not knowing what the next card is going to be.

Over time, some players took the skill component to extremes and devised clever ways of getting an edge. It’s well-known that the house has an advantage in Blackjack and other popular table games because of their rules and how probabilities work. However, some players attempt to turn the dynamic around through skill.

Card counting refers to a strategy that was popularized by films like “21”. It allows players to track how many high cards and low cards are still in the deck and then, based on their ratio, make decisions that significantly improve their chances of winning.

High cards, because they offer the player an increased chance of blackjack and increased doubling down opportunities, are seen as beneficial.

Likewise, low cards are regarded as being disadvantageous to the player and advantageous to the dealer. The reason is easy to understand: such cards give the dealer a better chance of getting close to a blackjack without compromising his hand.

Among the best-known card counting systems, the Hi-Lo method is the most used. In this method, low cards (2 through 6) are assigned a value of 1, neutral cards (7 through 9) are assigned a value of 0, and high cards (10, face cards, and aces) are assigned a value of -1.

As cards are dealt, players who have mastered card counting can roughly estimate the composition of the remaining deck. If there are plenty of high cards left in it, it’s generally a good idea to increase your bets.

Of course, all this is theoretical. In practice, just because you have better odds of winning in a given situation doesn’t guarantee that you will win. But on average, having the odds on your side is better than having them against you.

A player who is willing to play many rounds of Blackjack will eventually have an advantage if his method of card counting is effective. Or at least, that’s what the theory indicates.

The goal of reducing the dealer’s advantage in Blackjack by using an effective card counting method can help, but even a perfect strategy will not give the player more than a 0.5% - 1.5% advantage.

Furthermore, if a card game uses multiple decks, continuous shuffling, or frequent deck reshuffling, card counting becomes a lot harder. As you might expect, casinos know how to protect themselves against those who are experts at card counting and will do everything they can to hinder their tactics.

Card counting is perfectly legal in Blackjack. So, if you master it, this skill will give you benefits when playing this game in a casino. But, depending on the situation, those benefits will likely be reduced by the dealer.

Casinos combat card counting using a combination of surveillance, game mechanics (like increasing the number of utilized decks), and CMSs. They also use certain measures like restricting the maximum betting amounts of those who are caught counting cards or suspected of it. In extreme situations, you might be asked to leave.

Of course, players can fight back and disguise their card counting methods, as well as their ability to use them. Just because you possess valuable knowledge doesn’t mean you need to act on it right away or every single time. Not doing so makes it harder for the casino to establish a pattern of behavior.

Card counting is not easy and does require practice, as well as a certain level of intellectual prowess. But it can be done well by all kinds of players and not just by those who are mathematically gifted.

If you want to master card counting, you need to think of it as a skill like any other. Playing the piano every day will make you a better pianist in a few years. Engaging in card counting exercises on a daily basis will have a similar outcome.